Broadly speaking, the past week made fools of professional forecasters. Heading into the November 8th election, Hillary Clinton was the consensus favorite to win the presidency, with most polls pegging her chances at greater than 65%.
As you all know, the results of the US Presidential election were not what investors around the world anticipated. Surprise and uncertainty breeds volatility. Similar to the aftermath of Brexit last June, when UK voters approved to leave the European Union, markets around the world and the dollar are reacting negatively as we write this note.
In economic news, it was pretty much more of the same. The US economy continued to grow at a tortoise pace during the 3rd quarter. On a positive note, wage growth is accelerating and residential real estate values continue to increase around the country, which bodes well for the future.
The Los Angeles Times published an excellent long form series last week on the root causes of California’s burgeoning public pension funding gap. It is an interesting backstory characterized by financial myopia, cognitive bias, and endemic conflicts of interest.
Since the low back in February, and as we write this post, the S&P 500 has increased by more than 20%. This is remarkable considering the events of the past 6 months, such as the UK vote to exit the European Union, and the seemingly never-ending flow of terrorists’ acts around the world.
With the benefit of a month’s hindsight, market fallout from the Brexit campaign appears surprisingly short-lived, particularly in the U.S. Following a brief selloff in the few days following the June 23rd vote, the S&P 500 rallied over 8% in the next few weeks, hitting a fresh all-time high by early July. European equities, while still modestly negative for the year, also regained much of the ground lost after the Brexit vote.